Demand Strong for Treasury Debt
With major economic data, large Treasury auctions, and a Fed meeting on the schedule, it was a busy week for mortgage markets. In the end, it was the Treasury auctions which had the greatest impact on mortgage rates. Demand was very strong at the auctions, which pushed mortgage rates lower. Wednesday's Fed announcement and mixed economic data were roughly neutral for mortgage rates.
Much of the rise in interest rates we saw in late May and early June was due to concern about the enormous supply of debt the government needs to issue to pay for all the stimulus programs. The question was whether investors would require significantly higher yields to continue purchasing bonds. Strong demand from both domestic and foreign investors at this week's Treasury auctions eased those concerns for now and helped mortgage rates to reverse some of their recent increases.
As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate. However, investor expectations varied widely for the Fed's statement, but the statement revealed no significant shifts in policy. In particular, there was no change in the timing or the quantity of future MBS and Treasury purchases. In addition, the statement contained no discussion about exit strategies to eventually unwind Fed stimulus programs. Overall, the Fed simply held the course, and mortgage rates were nearly unchanged after the news.
In the housing sector, May Existing Home Sales rose 2.4%. It was the first time since September 2005 that Existing Home Sales increased for two months in a row. The inventory of unsold homes declined to a 9.6-month supply from a 10.1-month supply in April. A NAR survey revealed that 29% of sales were to first-time homebuyers, helped by the $8,000 tax credit, low mortgage rates, and favorable affordability levels.
The Week Ahead
Next week, the important Employment report will come out on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a loss of about 370K jobs in June. Before the Employment data, the Chicago PMI and ISM national manufacturing indexes will come out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market, will be released on Wednesday. Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, and Factory Orders will round out the schedule. Mortgage markets will be closed on Friday ahead of the July 4th holiday.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
Weekly Mortgage News: June 19th, 2009
Tame Inflation vs. Economic Growth
Tame inflation data helped mortgage rates move lower early in the week, but stronger than expected economic data turned them higher later in the week, leaving mortgage rates nearly unchanged from last week. The announcement of larger than expected Treasury auctions next week ($104 billion) also was negative for mortgage rates.
This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated that inflation is not a concern in the short-term. A significant decline in energy prices from one year ago resulted in a very low overall annual inflation rate. Even Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose at a tame 1.8% annual rate. However, the benefits from the favorable inflation news was offset by stronger than expected economic growth data. In particular, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed surprising improvement. In addition, May Housing Starts rose 17% from April, while Building Permits, a leading indicator of future activity, also exceeded expectations. This week's data sets the stage for next week's Fed meeting. With inflation currently low but at risk of increasing if the economy continues to improve, the Fed may be reluctant to introduce more stimulus, opting instead to wait and see how the economy performs.
President Obama this week proposed broad new rules for regulating the financial system. One proposal under the Obama plan would create a consumer protection agency which would have the authority to set rules for the mortgage industry. The details may not be known for quite a while, as the plan now faces a lengthy debate in Congress.
Tame inflation data helped mortgage rates move lower early in the week, but stronger than expected economic data turned them higher later in the week, leaving mortgage rates nearly unchanged from last week. The announcement of larger than expected Treasury auctions next week ($104 billion) also was negative for mortgage rates.
This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicated that inflation is not a concern in the short-term. A significant decline in energy prices from one year ago resulted in a very low overall annual inflation rate. Even Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose at a tame 1.8% annual rate. However, the benefits from the favorable inflation news was offset by stronger than expected economic growth data. In particular, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed surprising improvement. In addition, May Housing Starts rose 17% from April, while Building Permits, a leading indicator of future activity, also exceeded expectations. This week's data sets the stage for next week's Fed meeting. With inflation currently low but at risk of increasing if the economy continues to improve, the Fed may be reluctant to introduce more stimulus, opting instead to wait and see how the economy performs.
President Obama this week proposed broad new rules for regulating the financial system. One proposal under the Obama plan would create a consumer protection agency which would have the authority to set rules for the mortgage industry. The details may not be known for quite a while, as the plan now faces a lengthy debate in Congress.
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