Mortgage Rates Hold Steady There were few surprises in the economic data released this week, and the record $109 billion in Treasury auctions went smoothly. As a result, it was a quiet week for mortgage markets. This week's economic data showed signs that the economy is gradually improving, while inflation is not a concern right now. Demand remained solid for the Treasury auctions. Mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged. Last week, the Fed increased its weekly mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases to about $25 billion, and it maintained that level this week. Prior to that, the Fed had purchased roughly $20 billion per week for a couple of months. The current pace would lead to total purchases of the authorized $1.25 trillion by the end of the year, which is when the program is scheduled to expire. Mortgage rates are largely determined by MBS prices, and the added demand from the Fed has helped to keep mortgage rates low. In a speech this week, the Fed's Lacker suggested that with the economy improving the Fed may not need to purchase the entire $1.25 trillion of MBS. Lacker's comments caused little reaction, as his views are often contrary to those of the other Fed officials, but if that were to happen, then mortgage rates would almost certainly move higher. Mortgage investors will be closely watching the Fed's plans for this program. The housing data released this week was again positive. July New Home Sales rose 10% from June to the highest level since September. Inventories dropped to a 7.5-month supply, which was the lowest level since April 2007. This data follows a similar rise in July Existing Home Sales announced last week.

Mortgage Interest Rates Push Higher

Strong Economic Data Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher
With just minor exceptions, all of the economic data released this week beat the consensus forecast, indicating that the economy is improving more quickly than expected. While current inflation levels remain low, faster economic growth generally leads to higher future inflation, which is negative for mortgage rates. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.
Early in the week, stronger than expected manufacturing and housing data convinced economists to revise higher their forecasts for economic growth, and Friday's Employment data supported the improved economic outlook. Against a consensus forecast for a loss of -300K jobs, the economy lost -247K jobs in July, and the May and June data was revised to show fewer job losses as well. This was the 19th straight month of job declines, but it was the smallest level of losses since August 2008. The July Unemployment Rate fell to 9.4% from 9.5% in June, its first decline in 15 months. In addition, wages and the length of the average workweek increased. Overall, this report revealed unexpected improvement in nearly every area.
This week's housing market data also came in stronger than expected. June Pending Home Sales rose 4%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase. Pending Home Sales are a leading indicator for future housing market activity, meaning that Existing and New Home Sales reports may show improvement in coming months. According to the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), affordable home prices, low mortgage rates, and a rush to take advantage of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit have helped increase home sales.
Also Notable:
The Core PCE price index rose at a tame 1.5% annual rate
The Treasury announced that next week's auctions will be for $75 billion
The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady, as expected
The Fed purchased $19 billion in agency MBS during the week ending 8/5